The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (2024)

Dom Luszczyszyn and Scott Wheeler

Oct 10, 2024

The NHL runs on star power.

The best teams are the best teams because they have the best players. Those guys run the show, drive the bus, stir the drink — whatever idiom you want to use.

They’re go-to guys because it’s more often than not those guys leading teams to championships. Or close to it. That was on full display last summer with a star-studded Stanley Cup Final showdown between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers.

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They’re the foundational pieces, team centerpieces, and franchise cornerstones — the ones who form a contending core teams build around.

And if your team doesn’t have one, they’re the reason there’s an entire industry in this league predicated on being as bad as possible just for a small chance to land one.

That thought process is what informs our annual Player Tiers project, an attempt to create a definitive list of hockey’s best using the collective judgment of knowledgeable insiders in the game and a modeled projection of each player’s value. It’s what inspired the debut of the Prospect Tiers, a spinoff that hopes to do the same thing by showing who’s up next.

GO DEEPERNHL Player Tiers 2024-25: Connor McDavid levels up again, goalies join the discussion

Now, the logical culmination of that: Where does that leave each team standing, now and in the future?

By looking at how each team grades out via both the Player and Prospect Tiers projects, we’ve created a comprehensive look at how situationally competitive each team is — and where they are in their contention timeline as a result.

If the NHL runs on star power, that run doesn’t last forever for each team. Father Time is undefeated which creates the tried and true pattern that this league has operated on for the last two decades: build, rise, contend, fall, rebuild. How long that pattern lasts or takes can often depend on how bright a team’s stars can shine and for how long.

This is the Contention Cycle: A deep dive into each team’s current place in the league, future trajectory and projected upside over the next five years. All informed simply by our best estimation of each team’s present and future star power.

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (2)

As usual with any overarching look at the league, this isn’t the be-all, end-all. There are many other reasons a team can reach the league’s upper echelon. The other players on the team matter. The organizational prospect depth matters. The coaches matter. The front office matters. And of course, the salary cap matters.

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These placements aren’t static either. Far from it. Players and teams can change their perception quickly — it’s just a matter of proving and altering trajectories because of it. Essentially, this work isn’t set in stone. It’s a snapshot of where each team enters the 2024-25 season; something they can change with stronger play, better drafting, surprise breakouts or savvier managing.

All those things matter and are vital to keep in mind. But the main argument to be made despite all that extra nuance is that, above all, it’s the stars that are the most important thing to a franchise’s championship aspirations. That’s fairly clear to see from each team’s placement on the chart above.

Based on that, we’ve separated each team into nine tiers given their place in the contention cycle, and ranked them within.

Here’s where they land, now and in the future, why they do, and what their path to sustainable contention is.

You can find the methodology behind Present Rating and Future Rating at the bottom of this post.

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The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (3)

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Window Open

New Jersey Devils

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (4)

Present Outlook (Rating: 8.5)

New Jersey’s window is wide open thanks to having one of the league’s most exciting young cores — one that should have the Devils contending this year and beyond.

That starts with Jack Hughes, a 23-year-old phenom who has massive potential to be an annual fixture in the MVP discussion. The best teams in the league, the perennial powerhouses, are built around those types of players and having Hughes gives the Devils a massive advantage in that regard.

There are a few teams situated better than the Devils going into 2024-25, but the list is short with the Devils having comparable Present Rating to teams like Colorado, Toronto and Tampa Bay. That’s because it’s not just Hughes — it’s having another franchise player in Nico Hischier, an All-Star winger in Jesper Bratt and a trio of elder stars in Dougie Hamilton, Timo Meier and Jacob Markstrom.

This core is ready to cook — and to show last year was a fluke.

Future Outlook (Rating: 9.8)

We know what Jack Hughes represents and even what 20-somethings Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer and Jesper Bratt can do. But the beauty of what the Devils are building is in the established presence of those young core pieces and the emerging presence of an even younger potential core behind them in Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec and Anton Silayev, three of the top D prospects in the sport. After the way Seamus Casey played at Michigan last year and into training camp this year, there’s a real case to be made that that trio is actually a quartet, too. Not captured in the Prospect Tiers because of his age was also KHL standout Arseni Gritsyuk, who some believe will step right into the NHL when he comes over.

Path to contention

The beauty of the opportunity that’s in front of the Devils is that they’ve got the best 23-year-old player on the planet in Jack Hughes and a loaded core around him that can help them win now, and high-end young pieces coming that will allow them to fill in and prolong the window.

There are other teams around the league who have a comparable ‘Present Rating,’ but those teams don’t have anywhere near the quality of young talent coming up to augment their 'Future Rating' where the Devils are second to none.

The key for the Devils will be the tired-and-talked-about goalie conundrum. They’ll likely have to go find another Markstrom once the play of this one falls off. If that’s all you’ve really got to worry about, though, you’re in a good spot.

If this article’s aim is to define each team’s window, no team has one more wide open than the Devils.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Jack Hughes

Tier 2: Nico Hischier

Tier 3: Jesper Bratt

Tier 4: Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Markstrom, Timo Meier

Tier 5: Brett Pesce

Future Stars

Tier 1: Jack Hughes

Tier 3: Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec

Tier 4: Jesper Bratt, Anton Silayev, Dawson Mercer

Tier 5: Dougie Hamilton, Timo Meier, Seamus Casey

Window Open

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (5)

Edmonton Oilers

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (6)

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.7)

This is Edmonton’s year. No team is set up better for success than the Oilers who have an ample star-studded core hungry to win it all after coming up a goal short last season.

That of course is led by Connor McDavid, the best player in hockey whose value is simply transcendent. He gives the Oilers a massive head-start, one augmented further by having a second MVP-caliber center behind him in Leon Draisaitl. Only the Avalanche and Panthers can also boast having two Tier 1 skaters and it’s fair to say the Oilers have the edge there. The McDavid edge, if you will.

At the start of the McDavid era, that alone wasn’t enough. The reason the Oilers went to the final last year and the reason they’re the favorite to do it again this year is what’s been built around them. Evan Bouchard has emerged as a franchise defenseman, and the team has made savvy All-Star additions in Zach Hyman and Mattias Ekholm — both of whom have fit magically on this team.

The Oilers aren’t without flaws, but their core is the best in hockey by far. As long as they stay together, they’ve got the leg up on everyone else.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.2)

Matt Savoie’s going to be a top-nine NHL player (TBD on center or wing, though more likely wing) who brings speed, competitiveness and skill. Sam O’Reilly, who didn’t quite crack Prospect Tiers, has a chance to next year and projects as a middle-six center. After that, the Oilers’ pool is suffering (Roby Jarventie and Raphael Lavoie might just be Guys and Beau Akey is just working his way back after missing almost all of last year due to injury following a promising start). The good news is that McDavid and Draisaitl are still going to be McDavid and Draisaitl for probably a long time yet, and Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner represent a mid-20s No. 1 D and solid NHL goalie, two things that even McDavid and Draisaitl need. There may not be a team whose future ranking is propped up more by the continued high-level projections of their NHL core than what's coming, though, especially after losing Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, both of whom are probably better pieces than Vasily Podkolzin.

Path to contention

Stay the course, find good depth and most importantly, lock up McDavid and Bouchard to below-market deals.

This is a salary cap world after all and the best way to stay in this quadrant for the long run is keeping the core intact for as long as possible — and as cheap as possible. Part of the reason the Oilers have been able to amass this high-level core is because they have their three best players on sweetheart deals. As those expire, sacrifices generally have to be made around the edges, but as long as the main pieces stay intact, the team should remain ultra-competitive. It’s hard to lose with a foundation this good.

Bouchard is up at the end of this year. McDavid is up in two. How those contract negotiations work out — and the ramifications of them elsewhere on the roster — will have a huge impact on where the Oilers land going forward.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl

Tier 2: Evan Bouchard

Tier 3: Zach Hyman, Mattias Ekholm

Tier 5: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Stuart Skinner

Future Stars

Tier 1: Connor McDavid

Tier 2: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard

Tier 5: Stuart Skinner, Matthew Savoie

Window Open

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (7)

Dallas Stars

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (8)

Present Outlook (Rating: 8.2)

The Stars are the only team in the ‘Window Open’ or ‘Window Closing’ tiers without an MVP-caliber star. Every other team is led by an absolute superstar and that gives them a slight edge in ‘Present Rating.’

Dallas makes up a lot of ground, though, in the sheer volume of talent just below that with six players in the first four tiers. That’s a nucleus containing two franchise difference-makers (Miro Heiskanen, Robertson), one bona fide All-Star (Roope Hintz) and a trio of stars (Wyatt Johnston, Jake Oettinger, Thomas Harley) that give the core serious pop.

While the absolute top end may have ceiling limitations, the Stars more than make up with in volume of elite players. They’re a contender for good reason this season and it starts at the top of the lineup with an absurdly deep core that will only get better.

Future Outlook (Rating: 9.6)

What the Stars have built is built to last and they deserve a lot of respect and admiration for it. With just one top-five selection of their own (Tyler Seguin doesn’t count) in Miro Heiskanen (3rd overall), they’ve managed to construct a core of young players who produce like they’re high picks by hitting home runs with Jason Robertson (39th), Roope Hintz (49th), Wyatt Johnston (23rd), Thomas Harley (18th), and Logan Stankoven (47th). They also used their goalie bullet wisely when they used their second first-rounder in the Heiskanen draft to select Jake Oettinger (26th).

It's not easy to sustain success in the late-first and second round and the relative ages of all those pieces should mean the Stars are set for at least the next five seasons. With Heiskanen, Robertson and Johnston, the Stars are expected to still have three franchise players in the future — something only the Oilers can also boast.

Path to contention

The Stars' success drafting has enabled them to do one of the hardest things in hockey, which is to bridge between cores in real-time and without the typical rebuild gap in between. Not only have they gotten as much life out of Seguin and Jamie Benn as they can, finding ways to use them and maximize them, but because of the emergence of Johnston, Harley and Stankoven (Mavrik Bourque might be a player, too), it doesn’t feel like they’ll bear the brunt of losing the best of their aging stars, at least not in the way that most teams would. In a weaker Western Conference at the moment, that'll allow them to continue to compete. Hold steady, steer clear of kneecapping trades/signings, and they should be alright.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson

Tier 3: Roope Hintz

Tier 4: Wyatt Johnston, Jake Oettinger, Thomas Harley

Tier 5: Jamie Benn

Future Stars

Tier 2: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston

Tier 3: Logan Stankoven

Tier 4: Jake Oettinger, Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz

Tier 5: Mavrik Bourque

Window Open

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (9)

New York Rangers

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (10)

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.2)

The inclusion of goalies in this year’s Player Tiers was an important one for an exercise like this. When it comes to evaluating cores, it’s necessary to include Igor Shesterkin in the equation for the Rangers. He’s the team’s beating heart and as he goes, so too go the Rangers.

His inclusion gives the Rangers three players in Tier 2A or higher and they’re the only team with that distinction. It’s a massive part of what drives their ‘Present Rating’ which ranks just a shade behind Florida for third in the league. Between Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin and Shesterkin, the Rangers have built up an incredible foundation that makes them an easy annual contender pick. Having one of the absolute best players in the world at all three of wing, defenseman and goalie is a cheat code.

There’s some star depth beyond those players and the Rangers notably have the highest representation in the Player Tiers with eight players. But it’s that Big Three that makes this team shine.

Future Outlook (Rating: 7.7)

Alexis Lafrenière (All-Star), Gabe Perreault (Star) and Brennan Othmann (Support) were the only Rangers to feature in Prospects Tiers, but E.J. Emery was considered, Braden Schneider would have landed in Support if not for being 23, and Brett Berard looks like he might become a nice third-liner for them. It’s not as though K’Andre Miller, Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin are old men either, giving the Rangers, with Artemi Panarin (who is on the wrong side of 30), the ideal mix of a strong NHL core that isn’t completely bereft of incoming talent. Perreault’s got All-Star potential as well, and was considered for a tier higher.

Path to contention

The Rangers are close to slipping out of the ‘Window Open’ tier, but not quite. It all comes down to the team’s three foundational pieces.

While Fox’s projected steadiness as a franchise defender can keep the team’s window alive, the uncertainty around goalies in general means a lot will ride on Shesterkin’s trajectory (and his contract status).

Perhaps most impactful though will be how well Panarin ages; he’ll be 33 this month.

In Lafrenière, though, the Rangers have a built-in succession plan on the wing. His progression can keep up New York’s superpower — a three-headed beast at the top of the lineup with one of the best players in the world manning each position. That, of course, also depends on what heights Lafrenière himself can reach where our forecasted upside of 3B may not be enough.

The Rangers have some intriguing young players who can rise up and keep this team competitive beyond those four, but future contention may all rest on how well Lafrenière replaces Panarin internally.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Adam Fox

Tier 2: Artemi Panarin, Igor Shesterkin

Tier 4: Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zaibanejad

Tier 5: Chris Kreider, Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller

Future Stars

Tier 2: Adam Fox

Tier 3: Igor Shesterkin, Alexis Lafreniere

Tier 4: Gabe Perreault, Artemi Panarin

Tier 5: K'Andre Miller, Brennan Othmann

Window Open

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (11)

Colorado Avalanche

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Present Outlook (Rating: 8.5)

The best starting point is an MVP-caliber superstar. An even better starting point is two and that’s exactly what the Avalanche have in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. That duo alone means that — barring major catastrophe elsewhere — the Avalanche are going to be a competitive year after year. It’s one of the best foundations in the league, especially with one guy at center and another on defense. With positionally in mind, the Avalanche may have the best one-two punch in the league.

Having a franchise winger, Mikko Rantanen, and All-Star defender, Devon Toews, on top of that only bolsters that top end further. And it becomes especially scary when all four share the ice together, as they so frequently do.

So why don’t the Avalanche rank even higher? That comes down to the support core after the top guys. Uncertainty around Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin meant they weren’t included, but if they’re available and at their best, they solve that problem with ease. If it’s just Artturi Lehkonen as an impact support piece, however, the team may only be able to go so far off star power alone.

Future Outlook (Rating: 7.6)

The Avalanche's prospect pool paid the price for their Stanley Cup but they’ve re-calibrated at least a little at the last couple of drafts and Calum Ritchie in particular has real promise as a potential top-sixer who can play multiple positions and alongside skill players. There’s not a lot after Ritchie, but Mikhail Gulyayev has promise as a potential No. 4-5/PP2 type in time, Ilya Nabokov’s a legit goalie prospect and Sean Behrens might also be a piece of the puzzle. Still, their future score is driven almost entirely by the presence of two of the best players in the world and the fact that they’re both still in their 20s. It's worth wondering, too, whether the uncaptured Casey Mittelstadt (25) could play his way into the Support tier in the next year or two.

Path to contention

Having two of the league’s best building blocks has Colorado relatively set for the foreseeable future. Both being likely Tier 1 fixtures for years to come means the hard part is essentially set in stone for the Avalanche over the next five years.

Keeping the window open as long as possible depends fully on what happens around those guys. Resigning Rantanen to a competitive deal is a priority and Colorado already set the stage for that with below-market deals for both MacKinnon and Toews. As long as the core takes less to win, the rest of the roster shouldn’t be difficult to fill out. That should give Colorado an annual chance at the Stanley Cup.

What can augment that further is the team hitting on whatever draft capital they have. That’s an area where the Avalanche have historically struggled and could be the difference between MacKinnon and Makar ending their careers with one Cup, or more.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar

Tier 2: Mikko Rantanen

Tier 3: Devon Toews

Tier 5: Artturi Lehkonen

Future Stars

Tier 1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar

Tier 3: Mikko Rantanen

Tier 4: Devon Toews

Tier 5: Calum Ritchie

Window Open

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (13)

Window Closing

Florida Panthers

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (14)

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.3)

The reigning champs are the champs for a reason — their stars shine brighter than almost any other team’s. With Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, they’re one of three teams (Edmonton and Colorado are the others) with two MVP-caliber stars. And they’ve got a lot of weapons beyond that too.

Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad, Sergei Bobrovsky — yeah, that’s a pretty stacked core. With that kind of nucleus at the top of the lineup, the Panthers can easily survive key offseason subtractions. They’ll be a no-doubt contender again this season thanks to what they’ve methodically built at the top over the last decade.

Patience has been rewarded and they’ll have a real chance to go back-to-back this season.

Future Outlook (Rating: 7.1)

The Panthers’ prospect pool is amongst the shallowest in the NHL. Anton Lundell was the lone Panthers to feature in Prospect Tiers, though Mackie Samoskevich, Spencer Knight have been counted here, and Justin Sourdif and Linus Eriksson might be pieces. Their future rating was propped up by the persistent five-year projections of Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, the ageless Aleksander Barkov, and the emergence of Gustav Forsling as a first pairing D.

Path to contention

Who are we to tell the Panthers the path to contention? No organization is run better and the proof is in the results over the last few years. They’re patient and savvy, timing things well and targeting the right players. This front office doesn’t make many mistakes and that means they can expect their window to remain open for a good while.

The Panthers are in the ‘Window Closing’ tier though for good reason. While there’s no specific timeline on when that happens, the team’s best player is 29 — he won’t be a Tier 1 guy forever. He and Tkachuk should still be franchise caliber in five years' time and building around that duo should make things easier than it would for other teams. But there will still be some key players aging out of the impact zone.

Based on how the Panthers acquired Tkachuk in the first place, though, all of that happening shouldn’t be of much concern. This front office knows what an age curve is, knows how to value players, and knows when to pull the trigger to make a move that serves both the present and future. That could mean an ability to navigate a re-tool when needed to extend this window further.

The Panthers aren’t going anywhere.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk

Tier 3: Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling

Tier 4: Carter Verhaeghe

Tier 5: Sergei Bobrovsky, Aaron Ekblad

Future Stars

Tier 2: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk

Tier 4: Gustav Forsling, Spencer Knight, Anton Lundell

Tier 5: Sam Reinhart

Window Closing

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (15)

Toronto Maple Leafs

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (16)

Present Outlook (Rating: 8.5)

With Nylander’s move to Tier 2, the Leafs now have three bonafide franchise players. That’s a hefty advantage that few others can match and is the main reason they rank as high as they do. Auston Matthews being one of three players in Tier 1A is certainly a big part of that.

The reason they don’t rank higher though despite that head start is because the players that are next up don’t shine quite as bright. Morgan Rielly and John Tavares are on the cusp of Tier 5 status and as nice of an addition as Tanev, he’s still just a No. 2 defenseman.

The Leafs' high-end is close to as good as it gets (at least during the season anyway), but the immediate support behind them does lack when compared to the league’s top four teams. That’s the current separator.

Future Outlook (Rating: 6.6)

Easton Cowan and Matthew Knies represent promise in an otherwise uninspiring Leafs pool. There’s belief that Ben Danford will become a top-six NHL D. But there’s not a lot else the Leafs can count on to be more than depth pieces and this season feels like a bit of a make-or-break one for Nick Robertson in Toronto. As a result, the story of the future of the Leafs will very likely be the same as the present of the Leafs: As Matthews, Marner and Nylander go, so does Toronto.

Path to contention

The clock might be ticking on the Leafs a bit faster than some people realize and it’s why building a supporting cast outside their three franchise players is critical. A transition from Rielly, Tavares and Tanev is not just needed, it’s necessary.

The hope is one of Cowan or Knies can be that up front, but options on the blue line look pretty grim. Finding an external solution might be the only option there. A legit No. 1 has been on Toronto’s wish list for years and becomes an even more pressing concern the further Rielly drifts into his 30s.

While having Matthews, Marner and Nylander is an advantage even five years from now, only Matthews still projects to keep his franchise tag by that point. Those three aren’t young prime players anymore; they’re 27 and 28 years old. Maximizing the Leafs’ chances annually over the next five years is critical and that means surrounding them with more immediate support stars — especially on the blue line.

The Leafs still have time and won’t be an also-ran by 2030, but their chances get slimmer every year that Matthews, Marner and Nylander drift past their prime.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Auston Matthews

Tier 2: Mitch Marner, William Nylander

Tier 4: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares

Tier 5: Chris Tanev

Future Stars

Tier 1: Auston Matthews

Tier 3: Mitch Marner, William Nylander

Tier 5: Easton Cowan, Matthew Knies

Window Closing

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Tampa Bay Lightning

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (18)

Present Outlook (Rating: 9.3)

The Lightning already had one of the best cores in the league headlined by Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy. This summer they made a huge splash by augmenting it further with the massive addition of Jake Guentzel.

Ditching Steven Stamkos may have felt like a gut punch to some fans, but the team is better off for it. Swapping a 5A forward for one in 3A is a game-changer, one that pushes Tampa Bay into a tie with the Panthers in terms of ‘Present Rating.’

This year, the Lightning will see just how far star-power can take them as the rest of the team does leave a lot to be desired. Regardless, the core means they’re still a team to fear in the Atlantic.

Future Outlook (Rating: 6.4)

Father time is going to start catching up to the Lightning dynasty. The acquisition of Conor Geekie — the lone Bolt in Prospect Tiers, though Isaac Howard was one of the last cuts — in the Mikhail Sergachev trade signals the beginning of their planning for what’s next but they’re going to have to do more and more of that, like the Penguins are realizing, if they want to avoid the post-Kucherov/Hedman/Vasilevskiy era being a very dark one. Having Point, Guentzel and Hagel be a couple of years behind the holdovers does potentially help them extend their life a little though.

Path to contention

It doesn’t get much better than Tampa Bay’s collection of stars, but it may all be for naught if the Lightning don’t surround them with enough capable depth for the now. This team is all-in on the present and needs to act accordingly — no matter how ugly the end result may end up being. Flags fly forever and the team’s core gives them a fighting chance to add another one to the rafters. It won’t be long before this group of stars looks closer to average.

The Lightning won’t be completely cooked in five years' time as Kucherov should still be franchise-caliber, but the age curve may hit a lot of the core swiftly and suddenly. The 31-year-old isn’t the only one on the wrong side of 30 here.

That’s a much bigger concern on the back end where trading Mikhail Sergachev meant abandoning their No. 1 defender succession plan. Without one, that could mean this team can only go as far as Hedman takes them — for however long that may be for the 33-year-old. Replacing him won’t be as easy — value-wise anyway — as replacing Stamkos. The same may be true for Vasilevskiy who turned 30 this summer.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Nikita Kucherov

Tier 2: Brayden Point

Tier 3: Jake Guentzel, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tier 4: Brandon Hagel

Tier 5: Ryan McDonagh

Future Stars

Tier 2: Nikita Kucherov

Tier 3: Brayden Point

Tier 4: Brandon Hagel

Tier 5: Jake Guentzel, Victor Hedman, Conor Geekie

Window Closing

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Vancouver Canucks

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Present Outlook (Rating: 7.5)

The Canucks are fairly stacked going into 2024-25, entering the season with the eighth-best ‘Present Rating.’ That’s led by superstar defenseman Hughes, franchise center Pettersson, and All-Stars Demko and Miller. That’s a quartet that stacks up fairly well to some of the league’s best — but doesn’t quite match up completely.

The Oilers, Rangers, Avs and Leafs all have three franchise players. Florida has two MVP-level players. Tampa Bay, New Jersey, Dallas have two franchise players — like Vancouver — but either have more depth, or a third player better than Demko or Miller. The Canucks, for now, are at the back of that pecking order.

That can change quickly, it’s just a matter of maintaining last year’s ceiling. Miller scoring 100 points, Boeser potting 40 goals and Demko being Vezina-caliber again would help cement Vancouver’s baseline.

Future Outlook (Rating: 4.4)

Hughes and Pettersson (and to a lesser extent Demko) should sustain the Canucks and persist as one of the league’s better pairs, but the Canucks are going to need Jonathan Lekkerimaki to become a perennial 30-goal guy and Tom Willander to become more than the Support piece NHL scouts project him as if they’re going to sustain the level they reached as a team last year, especially if Miller or Boeser begin to tail off as they age. What they do with their next couple of first-round picks will chart their future path. If it’s win-now mode and they think they can push, then push. But if the window is a little closer to closed than they realize and they don’t hang onto their futures, that’s when things can get off track.

Path to contention

“The window just opened, what do you mean it’s already closing?”

It may seem odd to see the Canucks right next to the Bruins on the chart above, but those who remember the team’s peak years in the early 2010s know that some championship windows can be more fleeting than others.

This is where the sins of Jim Benning really come to haunt the Canucks; last year should’ve been year two or three or four of a competitive window — not the first.

That doesn’t mean the Canucks will fade away quickly. With Hughes and Pettersson around they have two franchise players for the next five years, something only Edmonton, Colorado, Dallas and Florida also boast. That’s a fantastic start, but the Canucks now need to think of how best to transition from some of the elder parts of the core.

That might be easy on the wing with Lekkerimaki potentially replacing Boeser. Demko, already 28, is a wild card whose Future Rating depends largely on availability. But the key consideration is Miller, a presently vital piece who is currently 31 and won’t be easy to replace.

Finding a successor to Miller could dictate how long the party lasts in Vancouver — especially for Canucks fans who view him in much higher esteem than his our placement in the tiers.

Present Stars

Tier 1: Quinn Hughes

Tier 2: Elias Pettersson

Tier 3: Thatcher Demko, J.T. Miller

Tier 5: Brock Boeser, Filip Hronek

Future Stars

Tier 1: Quinn Hughes

Tier 2: Elias Pettersson

Tier 4: Jonathan Lekkerimaki

Tier 5: Thatcher Demko, Tom Willander

Window Closing

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (21)

Boston Bruins

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (22)

Present Outlook (Rating: 7.5)

Shocker, the Bruins are going to be good again this year. It’s hard not to be with a core that’s headlined by an MVP-calibre player like David Pastrnak, a franchise defenseman like Charlie McAvoy and an All-Star goalie like Swayman — if he signs of course. That’s a three-headed monster at each position that few teams can match.

The Bruins also have some strong support pieces in Brand Marchand and two Lindholms (Elias and Hampus), but their lower stature here is part of the reason Boston isn’t closer to the real contenders this season. Both Marchand and Hampus Lindholm took a step back last year and that makes the team’s secondary core look a bit weaker.

The team’s nucleus is good enough to be a dark horse contender, but there are a lot of teams whose high-end talent looks even stronger.

Future Outlook (Rating: 4.4)

Matt Poitras is a piece but NHL folks don’t think he’s as glossy of one as Bruins fans do. Fabian Lysell is coming and was nearly included in Prospect Tiers. Mason Lohrei wasn’t captured in Prospect Tiers due to his age but could be a Support-level player in time. And nobody has any idea what Dean Letourneau is going to be, other than that he’s fascinating.

The Bruins don’t have the star power in front of them in their pool nor the depth behind them, though, even if their Future Rating might not tell the full story. They managed to move from the Bergeron/Marchand era to the Pastrnak/McAvoy era deftly, but there’s no next Pastrnak/McAvoy to bridge the next gap.

Path to contention

For the last decade the Bruins have been an annual contender thanks to a strong ability to bridge eras. Going from Bergeron-Marchand-Chara-Rask to Pastrnak-McAvoy-Swayman is hard to do and has allowed them to have a long life on the right side of the contention cycle.

The ability to draft most of those players outside the top 10 suggests a team that’s well-equipped to extend a window as long as it possibly can go. It’s what keeps the Bruins competitive year in and year out; they’ve established a winning culture.

With an elite core at the helm, they have a chance to keep that going, but it’ll take adding strong support to the team’s big three. Only Matthew Poitras currently figures to be part of the team’s future star-power equation and that won’t be enough — even with Pastrnak and Swayman both still looking like franchise talents in five years ’ time, and McAvoy right on the cusp.

That trio is this team’s superpower and it’s what’s keeping them alive this season. Beyond? They’ll need a lot more help. Building that up smartly could allow the Bruins to take a much shorter trip back to an open window.

Present Stars

Tier 1: David Pastrnak

Tier 2: Charlie McAvoy

Tier 3: Jeremy Swayman

Tier 4: Brad Marchand

Tier 5: Hampus Lindholm, Elias Lindholm

Future Stars

Tier 2: Jeremy Swayman, David Pastrnak

Tier 3: Charlie McAvoy

Tier 5: Matthew Poitras

Window Closing

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (23)

Window Opening

Minnesota Wild

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (24)

Present Outlook (Rating: 6.8)

The Wild are well represented in the top 150 led of course by Kirill Kaprizov on the cusp of Tier 1. Him entering the MVP conversation would dramatically alter Minnesota’s trajectory as it’s those players that often drive the league’s best teams. Tier 1 guys are the league’s best window-openers and there isn’t a single contender without one.

More support beyond that is also critical though and the Wild have that in spades with a growing young core (Matt Boldy, Brock Faber) aided by a trio of veterans (Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin). That should serve the team well in 2024-25 — they just need the rest of the team not to drag the stars down.

Future Outlook (Rating: 9.3)

The Wild deserve a lot of credit for identifying Brock Faber in the Kevin Fiala trade so that it wasn’t a net loss, and for drafting Matt Boldy, Zeev Buium, Danila Yurov and Jesper Wallstedt all outside of the top 10. Those players are all going to have to hit, and they'll need Marco Rossi to continue to take steps, but if they can get the most out of that group they should be able to push through the crack in the door into a very nice contention window. Buium, in particular, could be a game changer if he reaches his ceiling and joins Faber as one of the top D in the league, especially as Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon get older.

Path to contention

The Wild have had to carefully thread the needle of getting out from under bad contracts while trying to build a contending team without ever really entering a traditional rebuild cycle. It helps when you have a found money superstar in Kirill Kaprizov, but that’s not nearly enough and they've done a nice job building a core of young talent that looks like it came from a traditional rebuild but never really fully had to bottom out to get there. They have been in a dangerous place in the standings but seem to have navigated through it fairly smartly.

They could have been in an even more favorable spot had they taken any number of the players who were available when they drafted Charlie Stramel 21st in 2023 (Gabe Perreault, Oliver Bonk, Tanner Molendyk, Quentin Musty, Calum Ritchie, etc.), though, and how they spend the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise money when the bulk of it comes off the books next summer will be key in determining where their build goes. Locking up Kaprizov obviously goes without saying as imperative as well.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Kirill Kaprizov

Tier 3: Matt Boldy

Tier 4: Joel Eriksson Ek, Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon

Tier 5: Jonas Brodin

Future Stars

Tier 2: Brock Faber

Tier 3: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Zeev Buium, Jesper Wallstedt

Tier 4: Danila Yurov

Tier 5: Joel Eriksson Ek, Riley Heidt, Liam Ohgren

Window Opening

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (25)

Win Later

Buffalo Sabres

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (26)

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.2)

The Sabres are still trying to take a leap toward the playoffs and the current core still only lands on the cusp. A rise to the franchise tier for Rasmus Dahlin could move the needle, as could a return to form from Tage Thompson.

Beyond them, more young players need to show they can be difference-makers, whether that’s the two who made the top 150 (Owen Power, Dylan Cozens) or the several who might do so in the future. How every player develops will dictate where the Sabres stand this season — but it likely won’t be anywhere near the top of the league.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.4)

The Sabres lingered in the rebuild phase a little longer than they (and their fans) would have liked, but they have (and their fans are probably tired of hearing this, too) come out of it with an abundance of young talent that they should be able to build around.

They’ve got two of the best young goalies in the game, a nice luxury in today’s NHL which should ensure one is going. They’ve got a strong young foursome on D in Rasmus Dahlin (24), Owen Power (21), Mattias Samuelsson (24), and Bowen Byram (23) that should continue to grow together and hopefully be well-supported by one or two of Ryan Johnson, Nikita Novikov, Vsevolod Komarov, Maxim Strbak and Adam Kleber — none of whom were captured in the Future Rating but all of whom have a chance. And they’ve got an NHL team up front that includes Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn, Zach Benson and J.J. Peterka already, with a strong pool led by Konsta Helenius, Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund and Isak Rosen coming behind them.

Path to contention

Their challenge may become the one the Kings faced in recent years. There may be too many young players pushing and not enough jobs. That could eventually water down their value — especially when none of the players in that NHL group or prospects group up front rise to the level that Dahlin does on the back end as a true franchise type (are they missing that elite-level forward?). We’ve already seen the early effects of that in the Matt Savoie trade and it’s going to be fascinating to watch them navigate integrating the kids while trying to get better.

The next level — jumping from strong Future Rating to strong Present Rating is always the hardest and has eluded the Sabres for over a decade. They’ll need to play this next chapter just right, strike the perfect balance, and count on their young goaltending pair to be ready to step up when the team finally is.

Present Stars

Tier 3: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson

Tier 5: Owen Power, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens

Future Stars

Tier 3: Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power

Tier 4: Zach Benson, Konsta Helenius, Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka

Tier 5: Dylan Cozens, Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund

Win Later

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (27)

Montreal Canadiens

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (28)

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.8)

Montreal’s top three forwards — Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský — all made the cut this year, but none of the four are proven difference-makers yet that can lead a core. Until they get to that point, or the Habs add more top-end talent around them, Montreal is likely to remain as one of the league’s lesser teams. How high they climb will ultimately dictate the team’s ceiling.

Future Outlook (Rating: 8.6)

The Canadiens are in the early stages of trying to take steps as a group but operated smartly this summer by not spending to that end yet, which should allow them to add one more premium prospect at the top of next year’s draft. If they play their cards right and can continue to operate with that same restraint, they should be able to grow their smaller-in-numbers-than-most NHL core beyond the trio of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovský (their Future Rating graded out amongst the highest in the league). You can probably project that Ivan Demidov will turn that trio into a foursome. Jacob Fowler has a chance to be the goalie of the future. And while they’re going to need two-three star defensemen to emerge, they’ve positioned themselves well with Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson (maybe the X Factor in their future ceiling as a team), David Reinbacher and Logan Mailloux to hopefully develop a couple of those in-house — in Hutson's case potentially into a unique star as well. They're in great shape from a youth lens with more to come.

Path to contention

Trusting the process feels like it’s going to be particularly relevant for the Habs. So far, Kent Hughes and Co. seem to be in the right headspace for that. And until it’s time to push, their future as a potential contender will be determined by their ability to do one thing well: develop, develop, develop.

Present Stars

Tier 4: Nick Suzuki

Tier 5: Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky

Future Stars

Tier 3: Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovsky

Tier 4: Jacob Fowler, Lane Hutson, David Reinbacher, Nick Suzuki, Kaiden Guhle

Tier 5: Cole Caufield, Michael Hage, Joshua Roy, Logan Mailloux

Win Later

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (29)

Win Now

Nashville Predators

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (30)

Present Outlook (Rating: 7.7)

It’s hard to be bad with Roman Josi, Juuse Saros and Filip Forsberg in the fold — but those three aren’t enough on their own to contend. That’s what necessitated this summer’s three big splashes: offering elite support to the big three.

Those additions put the Predators firmly in dark horse territory with the ninth-best core in the league, a group that runs seven deep. Whether it’s enough to win it all remains to be seen, but the team has a fighting chance … for now.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.9)

The Preds have some decent prospects (it's a deeper pool in depth than the high-end talent) coming but they don’t have a clear first-line/first-pairing guy waiting in the wings and they’re now committed to an older NHL core than most after adding Steven Stamkos, Ryan O’Reilly and Co. in the last couple of years. Barry Trotz spoke a lot about a commitment to the future when he was hired but his moves since have signaled maybe a little less contentment with that in practice. Trading Yaroslav Askarov hurt their Future Rating as well because David Edstrom is a lesser piece — though their Future Rating should partially rebound if they hang onto the 2025 first-round pick they acquired for him. Will they?

Path to contention

A few years ago, the Predators looked to be at a clear crossroads where a rebuild felt like the only path forward. Josi was 30 and coming off a disappointing season and Forsberg looked stuck as a complementary winger with no one to complement.

Those two are a lesson that nothing here is set in stone and what actually happens on the ice matters. Josi has somehow found an even higher level in his early 30s and Forsberg finally proved he’s a legit scoring star. That changed Nashville’s math and it allowed the Predators core to have significantly more staying power than expected.

How long that lasts though is the question and in some respects, this summer’s splash feels like a last-ditch effort to squeeze whatever’s left. The Predators look a lot more imposing now than years past to that effect, but this group comes with an expiration date, one that lasts as long as Josi, 34, and Forsberg, 30, stay elite.

The clock is ticking and that means Nashville needs sudden unexpected jumps from young stars, or more hits via trade and free agency. Even then, the team’s window doesn’t look very open.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Roman Josi, Juuse Saros

Tier 3: Filip Forsberg

Tier 5: Ryan O'Reilly, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei

Future Stars

Tier 4: Roman Josi

Tier 5: Juuse Saros, Filip Forsberg, Tanner Molendyk, Matthew Wood, Luke Evangelista

Win Now

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (31)

Vegas Golden Knights

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (32)

Present Outlook (Rating: 6.6)

No team has more emphatically embraced the star-power ethos than, perhaps ironically, the team that famously made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season. Since that loss, Vegas has made it a point to be in on every single star player available and used an extremely ruthless approach to achieve its goals. Mission accomplished with a Cup win in 2023.

Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanifin, Tomas Hertl is a helluva haul. A band of outsiders.

It’s also not a haul that shines as bright as it once did. Eichel is still a franchise piece, but the decline of both Stone and Pietrangelo leaves the team’s top end wanting. The group of five with Shea Theodore is enough to be playoff caliber, but it does sit outside the top 10 in ‘Present Rating.’ As the star shimmer fades, so too do Vegas' chances of winning it all.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.9)

Future? What future? It’s all about the next hand, the next transaction, the next roll of the dice, the next opportunity to put tomorrow’s money into the biggest open bet.

Isn’t it fitting that, though, that the team in Las Vegas has proven more willing to gamble its future away and push all-in than any other team in the league?

Path to contention

With Vegas, the plan is obvious. Get as many stars as possible and do whatever it takes to make that happen. That’s allowed the team to have staying power in terms of ‘Present Rating,’ but there may be a time when it’s time to pay the piper. And that time might be sooner than it seems.

Stone and Pietrangelo aging out of the future core means a transition will be necessary, and maybe that’s what they already imagined when acquiring Hertl and Hanifin. The problem is that neither player shines as bright as those two did at their peaks which leaves the future core wanting.

It leaves Vegas in an awkward state at present time where the team is in win-now mode, but what they have now doesn’t look like enough — without much cap space to do anything about it. Vegas will likely find a way to wriggle out of that jam with yet another ruthless star-studded trade. That’s the team’s best path to keeping it’s contending hopes alive and no team does it better. But they can’t keep up that strategy forever.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Jack Eichel

Tier 3: Shea Theodore

Tier 4: Mark Stone, Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo

Tier 5: Tomas Hertl

Future Stars

Tier 3: Jack Eichel

Tier 4: Shea Theodore, Trevor Connelly

Tier 5: Noah Hanifin

Win Now

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (33)

New York Islanders

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (34)

Present Outlook (Rating: 5.8)

The Islanders are better than often given credit for and that’s thanks to an underrated core trio — one made stronger by the emergence of Noah Dobson. With Ilya Sorokin looking like a franchise goalie, Noah Dobson has the potential to become a second cornerstone at that level. Mat Barzal turning into a 90-point guy could help too, but it’s possible that ship has sailed.

Between Brock Nelson and Bo Horvat they’ve got some solid support pieces that should make them a playoff team. The question comes down to how high the team’s ceiling is though with only five top 150 players and not as many truly elite ones. That puts them close to the bottom of the win-now pecking order.

Future Outlook (Rating: 2)

The Isles have made just one first-round pick in the last five drafts and they used that selection on a high-risk, high-reward player in Cole Eiserman. If Eiserman hits, he’ll be a 30-40 goal scorer who is one of the most dangerous power play threats in the league. If he doesn’t, they’ve got almost nothing coming of consequence behind Noah Dobson.

Path to contention

The Islanders are a tricky team and it’s why there was some concern regarding the Horvat trade when it comes to the ultimate goal of contending. That moment in time felt like an opportune one to pivot to a quick re-tool that focuses on quickly building around the primes of Sorokin, Dobson and Barzal.

Age is the biggest hurdle the Islanders currently face and in five years’ time it’s unlikely that Horvat is a major factor in the team’s core. Even Barzal, currently 27, will be in his 30s by then and exiting his prime.

The Islanders are locked into this older group and their best bet is likely something similar to what the Predators are trying now. In some ways, trading for Horvat was their own “sign Stamkos” moment, but that path does mean the Islanders need more. As good as Sorokin, Dobson and Barzal are, they’re a step behind Nashville’s big three and that’s the difference here.

With only Eiserman on the star come-up, the Islanders need to go serious big game hunting to get as much juice out of the current era as possible. Getting bad money off the books and transitioning from some of the team’s elder statesmen could be the next step; one step back, two steps forward.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Ilya Sorokin

Tier 3: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal

Tier 4: Bo Horvat

Tier 5: Brock Nelson

Future Stars

Tier 3: Noah Dobson

Tier 4: Cole Eiserman, Mathew Barzal

Tier 5: Ilya Sorokin

Win Now

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (35)

Winnipeg Jets

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (36)

Present Outlook (Rating: 5.2)

The Jets are clearly in win-now mode and unfortunately, they’re at the bottom of that pecking order. Connor Hellebuyck props the team up considerably and Josh Morrissey is great, but the team’s core forwards severely lack relative to the rest of the league’s top teams.

There’s a reason that Winnipeg has been first-round fodder over each of the last two seasons. Outside of Hellebuyck, it’s difficult not to see a team that’s just mid — and they look dangerously close to the teams that are ready to rebuild. Unless there’s a drastically unexpected change on the horizon with core players taking significant steps, the team’s win-now plan likely won’t win much.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.4)

Your belief in the Jets’ ability to continue to compete once age catches up to 31-year-olds Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele comes down to your belief that Cole Perfetti will become a 70-point top-of-the-lineup forward and one of Brad Lambert and Brayden Yager will become a premium second-liner.

This season is a crucial one for Perfetti to demonstrate that he’s on that path and not one toward just being a 50-point second-liner type. Lambert’s got the skill and skating to get there and has taken some important steps in that direction. But Yager may just be a middle-sixer.

Path to contention

There’s a reason that contract extensions for Scheifele and Hellebuyck last summer felt like the wrong move — it locked the Jets in. They settled for a slow slide into mediocrity.

Last year’s unexpected rise toward the top of the division may have felt like a vindication of those moves, but a swift first-round thumping at the hands of a more star-studded team brought the Jets back to reality.

Being locked in means the Jets need to make it work with what they have. That could mean adding significant pieces like Nashville did to get more juice out of the current core. It could be waiting for players on the rise to take a step to bridge eras.

Any option they take doesn’t feel especially likely to end with a Stanley Cup though. There are exceptions to the rule, and re-tools that can cut corners to squeeze more juice, but the cycle tends to move in one direction. Teams can swim against the current and put up a fight, but the sea usually wins

Locking up Scheifele and Hellebuyck was Winnipeg not accepting that fate and has real potential to make any movement back toward an open window painfully long.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Connor Hellebuyck

Tier 3: Josh Morrissey

Tier 4: Kyle Connor

Tier 5: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele

Future Stars

Tier 4: Cole Perfetti, Josh Morrissey

Tier 5: Brad Lambert, Brayden Yager, Kyle Connor

Win Now

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (37)

Limited Ceiling

Carolina Hurricanes

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (38)

Present Outlook (Rating: 6)

The big question that surrounds the Canes is always the same: do they have enough star power to go the distance? Their place here is extremely interesting in that vein where it’s clear that the team’s top end is a step below the league’s best with a fairly middling ‘Present Rating.’ A core of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis and Jaccob Slavin is good — but it’s not great. Not compared to the Panthers and Rangers for example, the two teams that have ousted the team from the playoffs over the last three seasons.

That’s always been the trouble and to their credit the Hurricanes have positioned themselves extremely well despite the lack of comparable high-end talent. They’re often the deepest team in the league and are an annual contender for that reason. Zig if you can’t zag. After several deep runs without going all the way, though, it does beg the question of whether zigging can work.

Losing several premium players last summer is part of the step-back here though and, at the very least, the Hurricanes do seem to recognize the conundrum they’re in. They went all-in last year adding Jake Guentzel and if they they retained his services, Carolina’s ‘Present Rating’ would’ve jumped to 7.6 — right in line with Vancouver and Nashville and in the same quadrant as Florida, Tampa Bay and Toronto. Will the Hurricanes regret not signing Guentzel?

Future Outlook (Rating: 7)

The Canes should still have a good core to build around, led by Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov and Jaccob Slavin. They also prioritize skill in their amateur scouting process. They’ve got some young pieces coming in Alexander Nikishin, Bradly Nadeau, Jackson Blake and Scott Morrow as well thanks to those priorities. Could Nikishin, debatably the best player outside the NHL right now, become the Brent Burns replacement as a true top-pairing guy? There are some who believe he can, as early as this spring when his KHL season ends with SKA. They’re probably going to need him to — and Jarvis to be a Selke-level two-way player — to avoid a slow drift into no man’s land, though.

Path to contention

The Canes are in an interesting and challenging spot. They’re a very good team that hasn’t been able to get over the hump. Carolina has tried to win on loaded depth behind a solid core, a strategy which has made them a perennial contender, but faces reasonable questions about its ultimate upside.

Jake Guentzel’s addition alone couldn’t get them over the hump and now he, and Teuvo Teravainen, and Brady Skjei, and Brett Pesce are gone. The additions of Jack Roslovic, William Carrier, Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere aren’t going to do enough to absorb those blows. That’s especially true on the defensive side when Brent Burns will be turning 40 this season.

Eventually, Aho’s going to slip out of the franchise tier and the future could be led by a bunch of guys in the All-Star tier — but nobody above.

Still, the Hurricanes have shown a different path to success in the league — and a willingness to solve their biggest problem all the while. Don’t forget, on top of adding Guenztel, they were in on Matthew Tkachuk a few years back. They’re doing what they can and playing the cards they’ve been dealt. We’ll see if theirs is the savviest Cup path. And whether they can find another star to get their top end closer to where it needs to be.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Sebastian Aho

Tier 3: Jaccob Slavin

Tier 4: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Brent Burns

Future Stars

Tier 3: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Alexander Nikishin

Tier 4: Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin

Tier 5: Bradly Nadeau, Scott Morrow

Limited Ceiling

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (39)

Detroit Red Wings

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (40)

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.1)

The Red Wings have five players represented in this year’s Player Tiers — but none above 3C. There’s a chance both Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider can break out above that level, sure, but to start it’s a lot easier to like all the players ranked above them.

That puts Detroit in a tough spot going into the season. While many saw progress with last season’s 91-point finish, the current upside of the team’s core looks decidedly below average. For the team to take the leap, the team’s best players have to lead the leap.

Future Outlook (Rating: 6.6)

The Red Wings have two of the better goalie prospects in the sport, two of the better D prospects in the sport and a handful of legitimate forward prospects. In depth, their pool is as strong as any in the league in quantity and quality.

But there’s a difference between being among the better prospects at your position and being one of the best. They’re going to fill their roster with good young players in the next couple of years but they’re going to need one of the two goalies to become a bona fide starter, one of the D to emerge as a star and one of the forwards to be more than just an excellent second- or third-line contributor because it may be the difference between Detroit becoming a perennial playoff team and an actual contender.

Path to contention

One of the things this exercise made click for us was the hypothesis that the Canes’ present might be the Red Wings’ future, with oodles of depth while potentially lacking truly elite star power. That they landed in the same tier here made us wonder whether Detroit’s on a trajectory towards Carolina-land.

The predicament of the Red Wings’ NHL roster — a collection of impactful players (see: Raymond, Dylan Larkin, Seider, Alex DeBrincat) but a dearth of Tier 1/Tier 2 types that elevate your ceiling as a team — is the same predicament of their prospect pool. It’s among the deepest in the league, with two top-10 goalie prospects, two high-end D prospects and a handful of projectable top-nine forward prospects you’re hoping produces a couple of solid top-sixers.

But even in a best-case scenario, even if one of Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka becomes a No. 2 and the other becomes a No. 3, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård becomes a jack-of-all-trades 30-goal guy, Marco Kasper becomes a high-end 3C, Nate Danielson becomes a high-end 2C, and Trey Augustine and Sebastian Cossa become the tandem of the future, is that enough? It’s enough to make them into a perennial playoff team and maybe even into a Carolina-style contender if — big if — management is just as savvy elsewhere. There’s an argument to be made that that’s a solid place for a build without a lottery win to finish. But is it a Stanley Cup nucleus? Can they do it without an $11-12 million player? That’s also a fair question.

Present Stars

Tier 3: Dylan Larkin

Tier 4: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider

Tier 5: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane

Future Stars

Tier 3: Lucas Raymond

Tier 4: Simon Edvinsson, Moritz Seider, Axel Sandin Pellikka, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Sebastian Cossa, Trey Augustine

Tier 5: Nate Danielson, Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper

Limited Ceiling

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (41)

Ottawa Senators

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (42)

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.4)

Ottawa’s young core sits just below average, slightly below where most of the league’s likely playoff teams are. The trifecta of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson has them right on the cusp — now it’s up to them to take the next step.

Whether Ottawa can make the playoffs this season depends largely on whether or not that trio can prove to be more. At least one needs to be franchise-worthy to drag the Senators into the league’s upper half, and while it’s a possibility, it’s not exactly a likelihood.

Where the Sens have a slight upper hand over Detroit and Buffalo trying to do the same thing is in a fourth star player: Linus Ullmark. That acquisition raised the core’s baseline at a key position. Will it be enough?

Future Outlook (Rating: 4.6)

The Senators have a strong young core that should continue to grow together. The challenge is they likely need to take bigger steps than they’re projected to and they need to do it in unison — Stützle needs to become one of the 20 best forwards in the world, Sanderson needs to quickly ascend a tier or two and become one of the 10 best D in the world and Shane Pinto needs to climb into the Support tier.

Where other non-playoff teams have more coming behind similar cores, the Sens have almost nothing below Carter Yakemchuk in their pool.

Path to contention

The Senators are in no man’s land largely because, as the data underlined, they probably jumped the gun a year or two early on their build by pushing in when they did with Claude Giroux, Jakob Chychrun and Joonas Korpisalo – moves which came at the cost of their prospect pool.

The Senators built the beginning of a strong foundation when they amassed Stützle, Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson, Pinto, Sanderson and co. (though Josh Norris’ shoulder didn’t help the cause). But that core’s timeline and upper management’s timeline were misaligned.

They’re going to get better naturally still but they’ll need Stützle to become a 95-100 point superstar and Sanderson to become a Norris type in order to elevate their ceiling from compete-for-the-playoffs to compete-for-the-Cup. Without prospect depth to rely on, one franchise player from the rebuild won't be enough to open the window.

Present Stars

Tier 3: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle

Tier 4: Jake Sanderson, Linus Ullmark

Tier 5: Thomas Chabot

Future Stars

Tier 2: Tim Stutzle

Tier 3: Jake Sanderson

Tier 4: Brady Tkachuk, Carter Yakehmchuk

Tier 5: Ridly Greig

Limited Ceiling

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (43)

Rebuilding

Columbus Blue Jackets

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (44)

Present Outlook (Rating: 0.7)

For now, Werenski is Columbus’s lone representative in the Player Tiers, a telling sign the team is still in building mode. It’s unlikely the Blue Jackets are competitive this season with a tepid current core, and the focus remains on building up the base for ample future representation. A spot for Adam Fantilli next season is certainly in the cards, too.

Future Outlook (Rating: 6.6)

The Blue Jackets have selected in the top six of the draft in four consecutive years and had a second pick in the top 15 in two of those years. The result is a pool boasting one of the brightest young players in the game (Fantilli), two of the top D prospects in the game (David Jiříček and Denton Mateychuk), a high-risk, high-reward potential second top-six center (Cayden Lindstrom) and strong young depth pieces that should help round out that young core (Cole Sillinger, Gavin Brindley, Jordan Dumais, the Russians, etc.). The one young player not mentioned there — Kent Johnson — is an intentional one because this season feels like it’s going to be pivotal in either slipping into the cement as just a complementary winger or stepping onto firm ground down a path towards being a legitimate top-of-the-lineup forward.

Path to contention

While the Jackets have already rotated through a general manager and multiple coaches in their rebuild cycle, they’re going to have to be careful not to head down the same path the Senators did by trying to round the corner out of the rebuild before the apex. They started to toy with that idea when they went out and acquired veteran names like Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson, but continued patience will likely determine whether they swing out of this build into that window open quadrant or closer to no man’s land.

Present Stars

Tier 4: Zach Werenski

Future Stars

Tier 2: Adam Fantilli

Tier 4: Cayden Lindstrom, David Jiricek, Kent Johnson, Denton Mateychuk, Zach Werenski

Tier 5: Cole Sillinger, Gavin Brindley, Jordan Dumais

Rebuilding

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (45)

Chicago Blackhawks

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (46)

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.3)

Based on actual tangible NHL results, the Blackhawks are currently set up a little better than their counterparts in the ‘Rebuilding’ tier. They have Connor Bedard after all, a potentially generational talent who showed immense offensive flair from the get-go despite an utterly abysmal support system around him.

One player isn’t enough to get out of this tier in the present tense, though — even with Seth Jones offering some support in Tier 5. That’s especially true if there are still enough holes in Bedard’s game to limit him from landing him in the franchise tier. There’s obviously still a lot of work to do in Chicago, and that work will be made easier by the current product not being good enough to escape this tier. Not yet.

Future Outlook (Rating: 5.3)

The Blackhawks’ rebuild has a more sure foundation and a higher potential skyline because of Bedard, but they’ve also done well to accumulate a ton of draft capital in a short period of time and to use that capital to quickly build out one of the league’s better prospect pools around him. That pool is led by a potential first-pairing stud in Artyom Levshunov and hopefully a No. 2 or No. 3 in Kevin Korchinski.

The one thing they’re maybe missing — and that’s the calculus they made when they took Levshunov over Ivan Demidov, a reasonable bet to make — is that second-tier all-star/franchise type up front behind Bedard. Oliver Moore and Frank Nazar both factored into the Prospect Tiers project, and guys like Sacha Boisvert and Marek Vanacker could next year, but those players project more as complementary top-nine pieces than a running mate for Bedard.

Path to contention

Could Chicago draft the Point to Bedard’s Kucherov with another high pick in 2025? Potentially. Or could they eventually go out and spend $10 million-plus on that player in free agency to help open their window? That’s possible too. But getting that read right could have as much to do with setting their ceiling as Bedard getting to the MVP tier. That they’ve signed so many players for the next two years suggests they’re comfortable continuing to build Future Rating until they’ve got a better sense for what they have and what the right next play is.

For now, it’s clear from their Future Rating there’s still a lot more to build.

Present Stars

Tier 3: Connor Bedard

Tier 5: Seth Jones

Future Stars

Tier 1: Connor Bedard

Tier 3: Artyom Levshunov

Tier 4: Kevin Korchinski

Tier 5: Oliver Moore, Frank Nazar, Lukas Reichel

Rebuilding

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (47)

San Jose Sharks

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (48)

Present Outlook (Rating: 0.4)

San Jose was the only team without a single player in the Player Tiers. Ouch.

Maybe we should’ve thrown a bone to Tyler Toffoli, but things still look grim for the Sharks in the immediate present. There will be a time when Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith join the fray, but it’s not now.

Future Outlook (Rating: 5.9)

The Sharks have moved at warp speed into their rebuild, putting together arguably the league’s top prospect pool in a couple of calendar years. Celebrini has all the makings of a transformational star. You can count on one hand the number of young players in the game with Smith’s pure talent. Some wheeling and dealing landed them a star D prospect in Sam Dickinson and a star goalie prospect in Yaroslav Askarov. William Eklund looks like an excellent complementary top-sixer. Quentin Musty’s got top-six upside. Shakir Mukhamadullin is a piece. Luca Cagnoni was this close to getting into the Prospect Tiers and would be included if it were up to me. And Filip Bystedt, Igor Chernyshov, Leo Sahlin Wallenius, Kasper Halttunen and co. wouldn’t have been far behind him if there was a Tier 6.

Path to contention

The Sharks don’t seem in a rush to slam down the pedal and speed out of the rebuild on a false start, which is important.

They’ve got the outlines of something. Now they have to turn it into something real. Sure, there are always what-ifs when you’re in that future-reliant pocket but they’re at the starting line with more fuel than the field. While the Sharks aren’t done yet, they look a little closer to building a perennial contender than rebuild rivals in Chicago and Anaheim.

Future Stars

Tier 2: Macklin Celebrini

Tier 3: Will Smith, Yaroslav Askarov

Tier 4: Sam Dickinson, William Eklund

Tier 5: Quentin Musty, Shakir Mukhamadullin

Rebuilding

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (49)

Anaheim Ducks

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (50)

Present Outlook (Rating: 0.7)

With just Troy Terry representing the Ducks in this year’s Player Tiers, it’s likely going to be a tough go unless someone really steps up. Preferably more than one, too.

Anaheim has all the pieces to make it happen, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Leo Carlsson especially make his mark and enter the tiers conversation next season. But until the ducklings actually prove it, they remain leaders of a bottom-feeder.

Future Outlook (Rating: 5.4)

The Ducks turning their Future Rating into Present Rating feels, anecdotally, like it’s going to begin to realize sooner than the others in the rebuilding phase. That’s largely because their young core has either already started playing high in their NHL lineup (see: Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov, Mason McTavish) or will this season (Cutter Gauthier, Olen Zellweger). Those we spoke to are pretty confident in projecting those five players into anywhere from star to All-Star and maybe even franchise-level in Carlsson’s case.

Their two wildcards feel like Beckett Sennecke and Trevor Zegras, two of the most purely gifted — but also complicated — young players in the sport. If they can each turn into high-end point-producing types, the Ducks will be well on their way back to a new Perry/Getzlaf era. If they don’t, their trajectory could swing a little lower.

Path to contention

We’ve been waiting for that switch from Future to Present Rating to flip for some time. Until they actually take a tangible step, there’s still uncertainty in what the Ducks currently have with their roster — as promising as they appear.

Zegras in particular is an interesting/relevant player to mention as he’s someone who’s still young enough to grow into a difference-maker, but has aged out of the Prospect Tiers and hasn’t established himself to land on the Player Tiers. He and players like him give the Ducks more Future Rating than accounted for here. Still, it’s their even younger players who will carry them forward if they are to get to where they want to be in that ‘Wide Open’ tier in a few years’ time.

Present Stars

Tier 5: Troy Terry

Future Stars

Tier 2: Leo Carlsson

Tier 3: Mason McTavish

Tier 4: Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Beckett Sennecke, Olen Zellweger

Tier 5: Stian Solberg, Tristan Luneau

Rebuilding

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (51)

Utah Hockey Club

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (52)

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.3)

For some teams who have more depth than star power, the collective Present Rating derived from the Player Tiers can miss the mark. Utah should have a competitive team this season beyond just Clayton Keller and Mikhail Sergachev and that’s because the team has a number of players on the cusp of inclusion.

What this exercise might reveal, though, is a trajectory with limited upside — both now and in the future. Without a true franchise player and with Keller as their best player, Utah will likely be outmatched at the top of the lineup often this season. Unless some young players take big steps quickly, it’s possible the team’s low standing here could be a signal towards disappointing on their otherwise optimistic projections.

Future Outlook (Rating: 4.6)

For what they lack in a current core, Utah makes up for it in their emerging core. At the forefront of it are a trio of young players who’ve already joined or are in the process of joining that established core in Logan Cooley (who might have Tier 2 upside and should absolutely become a Tier 3er), Dylan Guenther (same boat) and Matias Maccelli (not accounted for in this exercise, but probably more of a Tier 4er) plus a wave of prospects who should follow behind them.

Up front, that next infusion will be led by the skill and scoring of Tij Iginla and the unique length and makeup of Daniil But. And on the back end, Mikhail Sergachev and Sean Durzi should help them get to Dmitry Simashev, Maveric Lamoureux and co.

It’s a promising group.

Path to contention

The ‘Hockey Club’ doesn’t yet have an NHL core to compete with the actual contenders — holdouts Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Lawson Crouse and Barrett Hayton are all quality pieces up front and newcomers Mikhail Sergachev and Sean Durzi are legitimate top-four NHL D, but as a group they’re lacking in Tier 1, Tier 2 and even Tier 3 players. The current core was not well represented in the Player Tiers for good reason. Though there’s more coming, there is reason to wonder whether they’re on more of a Detroit/Ottawa trajectory than a Blackhawks/Ducks/Sharks path — some of which can likely be attributed to the lack of stability to execute on their vision in Arizona. Cooley, Guenther and a few of the up-and-coming prospects hitting their absolute ceiling would go a long way. Hopefully new ownership helps them execute on their vision as well.

Present Stars

Tier 3: Clayton Keller

Tier 5: Mikhail Sergachev

Future Stars

Tier 3: Logan Cooley

Tier 4: Tij Iginla, Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, Dmitri Simashev

Tier 5: Mikhail Sergachev, Daniil But

Rebuilding

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (53)

Seattle Kraken

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (54)

Present Outlook (Rating: 2)

One of the issues that stem from an expansion process where the choices are a team’s fifth-best forward or fourth-best defensemen (or worse) is that the team is left utterly devoid of high-end talent.

Vegas, after a miraculous first-season run built on misfit toys, turned every part of their draft upside down in order to fill that void. The Kraken, on the other hand, have seemingly leaned into the bit. Not only have they doubled down on the principle by keeping their low-ceiling core, they’ve added to it in free agency with a slew of expensive, middling players.

That leaves Seattle in a precarious present position with Dunn as the team’s best player in 4C and three solid players toiling in Tier 5. Without any guys in the top three tiers, let alone the top two, there are serious questions about the Kraken’s ultimate ceiling.

If this league runs on star power, Seattle is opting for an alternate fuel choice. Can they be the exception to the rule?

Future Outlook (Rating: 3.8)

Though there are questions about each player's ceilings, there isn’t an under-23 1-2-3 down the middle in the league comparable to Berkly Catton, Matty Beniers and Shane Wright, and they should get support on the wings if a couple of David Goyette, Carson Rehkopf, Jagger Firkus and co. hit. That they’ve used all four of their first-rounders on forwards does cast doubt about the future of their blue line, though. Vince Dunn and Brandon Montour are quality top-four NHL D and Ryker Evans looks like he might become one, but they’ve got work to do to stock (you can’t even call it restocking because it was never stocked in the first place) their pool on D.

Path to contention

The Kraken didn’t execute in the expansion draft process like the Golden Knights did, and had they not accumulated draft capital like they did in other ways, it’s clear their NHL roster was headed for no man’s land. Some of their expansion and contract missteps may be partially offset by their drafting but it too may not be enough.

Their overall approach to building through depth may not have long-term payoff and there's a lot of work ahead for the Kraken even if Catton and Wright both become core pieces and give them real strength down the middle as an organization. The contention outlook is murky and maybe that will be the new normal for expansion teams.

Present Stars

Tier 4: Vince Dunn

Tier 5: Jared McCann, Brandon Montour, Matty Beniers

Future Stars

Tier 3: Berkly Catton, Matty Beniers

Tier 4: Shane Wright

Tier 5: Vince Dunn, Carson Rehkopf, Jagger Firkus

Rebuilding

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (55)

Philadelphia Flyers

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (56)

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.2)

The Flyers surpassed anyone’s wildest expectations last season, but the end result was still outside the playoffs. The lack of high-end talent was noticeable. As good as Travis Konecny is, it’s not ideal that he’s one of only two Flyers on this list and tops out in Tier 4.

Matvei Michkov will fix some of this problem one day, maybe as soon as next season. For now, it’s tough to see the Flyers being competitive with what they currently have atop the lineup.

Future Outlook (Rating: 2.6)

Michkov has superstar-level talent and is one of the best young players in the sport. But as with the Blackhawks and Bedard, the Flyers may need a running mate for him. Jett Luchanko is a beloved young player who many believe will be an excellent second-line center in the NHL and Oliver Bonk looks like he’s got top-four upside. Cam York and Tyson Foerster are really good young players in the league. Bobby Brink might become one. If they draft outside the top 10 again this season, though, the weight of the world may rest on Michkov. Taking a step back may actually be a good thing for the Flyers, who would really benefit from another premium future piece.

Path to contention

The Flyers are at an impasse. They’ve talked a lot about a committed, long-term approach to a proper rebuild and yet after one year of proper pick accumulation (2023, when they selected 10 times, twice in the first-round, and drafted a franchise-level prospect in Michkov), they performed better than expected the very next year, didn’t draft back in the top 10 and lost their other recent top-10 pick to a trade demand. They’ve also committed term to mid-tier stars in Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett — moves which, while necessary, may raise their floor higher than is in the best interest of the team long-term.

In all of those ways, the Flyers, more than most teams, have to make a “where do we go from here?” decision because there isn’t an obvious path forward for them.

The play should still to be to sit in the rebuild phase a little longer, rather than trying to exit early after seeing your first half-steps of progress. That’s easier said than done in the winning business, but the Flyers should be more focused on contending than winning. There’s a chance last year’s half-success (see: mirage) actually handicaps them in the long run. They need to make sure they don’t let it.

If Konecny and Tippett are both just Tier 5 players five years from now (the model projects Tier 5C for Konecny and off for Tippett), are we going to be left to wonder why they didn’t move them for significant futures and really lean into the rebuild phase? Those are the toughest decisions to make but can really dictate a team’s trajectory.

Present Stars

Tier 4: Travis Konecny

Tier 5: Owen Tippett

Future Stars

Tier 2: Matvei Michkov

Tier 5: Jett Luchanko, Jamie Drysdale, Oliver Bonk, Tyson Foerster, Travis Konecny

Rebuilding

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (57)

Rebuild Time

Los Angeles Kings

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (58)

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.2)

Even with Drew Doughty, the Kings find themselves in a precarious spot at the moment, one that’s been on full display in each of the last three post-seasons. The team’s top end is just not good enough. The Kings have good players, but they don’t have great players.

The team’s top four forwards all reside in Tier 4C or lower which gives them some depth, but not much pop. Depth has been the team’s strong suit during this era, but up against the league’s most star-studded team it’s come up painfully short. That’s the crux of the issue for Los Angeles, a team that ends up on the wrong side of average in this exercise for good reason.

That can change if Quinton Byfield breaks out and Kevin Fiala soars with him. But even that might not be enough — especially without Doughty for the first several months. He’s still the team’s best player and without him, the core unfortunately doesn’t look much better than St. Louis’ going into the season. Depth is the difference as to which one is a likely playoff team, but it’s not enough for the Kings to contend. Not even close.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1)

The Kings are a textbook case study in a failure to turn future value into present value. A few years ago, their pool had an abundance of good prospects and in some ways that logjam played against them, devaluing their assets when only a select few could make the jump.

Alex Turcotte isn’t going to provide equal value on a No. 5 pick, in part because of the role injuries have played in his development. They didn’t make a first-round pick in 2022 or 2023. They traded away Brock Faber, one of the sport’s best young players. Gabriel Vilardi’s back undid his time in L.A. and then he too was moved — another high pick out the door. And while Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke both still have very high upsides, they may be all the Kings have to show for all of that future asset accumulation they did — with Liam Greentree 2-3 years behind them and a couple of tiers below them even if he hits.

Path to contention

The Kings are not in a good spot, both now (not good enough!) and in the future (that’s it?), and that’s a hard problem to solve.

Los Angeles’ mini rebuild was cut short in an attempt to bridge two eras. The unfortunate end result is a middling present without franchise talent and a murky future with far from enough talent. The Kings could turn into a brutal lesson in not cutting corners. Don’t take dinner out of the oven before it’s cooked — even if the sides are getting cold.

It’s possible Byfield and Clarke can form a strong enough nucleus that can get the Kings where they need to go. If they both hit franchise player status, that is — not the likeliest scenario. As it stands now, this team might genuinely need to go back to the drawing board to take as much advantage of Byfield’s prime as possible.

Mistiming that, as they mistimed the bridge in eras, could extend Los Angeles’ time away from contention even further.

Present Stars

Tier 3: Drew Doughty

Tier 4: Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar

Tier 5: Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield

Future Stars

Tier 3: Quinton Byfield

Tier 4: Brandt Clarke

Tier 5: Liam Greentree

Rebuild Time

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (59)

Pittsburgh Penguins

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (60)

Present Outlook (Rating: 4.5)

It’s hard to let go of the past, especially when it brought as much joy as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang did. It’s obvious to everyone that Pittsburgh’s next era has to begin, but you try telling that to Crosby. He’s still good enough to lead a winning team, he’s just not enough on his own. What’s around him just isn’t good enough anymore and losing Jake Guentzel was a particularly harsh blow to the team’s Present Rating. With him, there was at least a faint chance. Without him? Woof.

Erik Karlsson finding his groove with the Penguins and getting back to his Norris form from two years ago would go a long way. But even that wouldn’t go nearly enough of the way. It’s clear as day from the last two seasons that Pittsburgh’s days of contending are over.

Future Outlook (Rating: 0.1)

The Penguins are in the early stages of trying to get younger and have, for the first time in what feels forever, something — anything! — to work with in their pool. They still don’t have any premium young pieces either on the NHL roster or coming. Rutger McGroarty will become a good player for them but the trade was basically a lateral one that may turn into a minor upgrade. And while the Jake Guentzel trade with Carolina restocked them from a quantity perspective with several B-grade pieces, it came at the expense of getting a quality high-end one. If Harrison Brunicke’s U18 worlds, rookie tournament and first training camp were any indication, they might have something there. No matter how much more work they do to that end, though, it may not be enough to avoid driving off the cliff that’s coming. It’s just too little too late to prevent an inevitable dark period.

Path to contention

We know what the Penguins are going to do for the next little bit. As long as Crosby is still Crosby, they’re going to try to squeeze whatever juice is left to squeeze. Maybe that leads to a dead cat bounce, but the window is basically closed. The sooner the franchise accepts that fate, the sooner they can start turning towards the next era — and opening the next window.

Present Stars

Tier 2: Sidney Crosby

Tier 4: Erik Karlsson

Tier 5: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust

Future Stars

Tier 5: Rutger McGroarty

Rebuild Time

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (61)

Window Closed

St. Louis Blues

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (62)

Present Outlook (Rating: 2.5)

Blues fans aren’t fond of Dom’s Model always harping on the team and their place in the Contention Cycle will not alleviate that. Look, we’re sorry, but should we really be that excited about having just Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich and Jordan Kyrou leading the way as core pieces? Sure, they’re nice players, but look around the league and it just isn’t close to enough.

It’s possible Thomas can hit the franchise tier, Kyrou becomes an all-star forward and Buchnevich returns to that tier too. That might help, but the Blues still need more beyond that. Only eight other teams have only three or fewer players in the top 150.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.6)

The Blues are the team whose prospect pool was closest to having more representation in Prospect Tiers. On one hand, that speaks to a Future Rating that should probably be a little higher. On the other, it underscores a system filled with good prospects but not great ones. In that way, there are some parallels with their NHL club. You’re hoping Dalibor Dvorský and Jimmy Snuggerud can become Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas-level players and the rest can become strong support pieces. That’s the best-case scenario. The problem with that is how hard it is to contend if Thomas and Kyrou types are your best players. Their pool is a lesser version of the one the Red Wings have built, with plenty of solid pieces but nothing elite.

Path to contention

The Blues have done an admirable job staying competitive after their Stanley Cup win, but it’s time to rip the band-aid off. This team is not a contender, nor are they very close to contending either. It’s not ideal to be in the same tier as the Flames and Capitals and it’s a telling sign that it’s time to reevaluate the team’s direction.

Maybe the Blues find a way to surprise somehow, but from this vantage point the window looks closed. It’s time to rebuild.

Present Stars

Tier 3: Robert Thomas

Tier 4: Pavel Buchnevich

Tier 5: Jordan Kyrou

Future Stars

Tier 3: Robert Thomas

Tier 4: Jimmy Snuggerud

Tier 5: Dalibor Dvorsky, Jordan Kyrou

Window Closed

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (63)

Calgary Flames

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (64)

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.7)

The Flames accepted their unfortunate fate last season and now begin the arduous road back towards opening a legitimate championship window.

For now, one of the things holding the team back from truly bottoming out is a trio of still-capable stars propping things up. With MacKenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri and Rasmus Andersson around, the Flames have a chance to win more games than they’re supposed to at this stage.

While it’s not enough to be a playoff team this year, that group may prove annoyingly capable — which limits the ‘Future Rating’ the team obtains at next year’s draft.

Future Outlook (Rating: 1.2)

Connor Zary wasn’t captured in the Prospect Tiers due to the age cutoff and hasn’t yet established himself in the player tiers, so it’s worth starting with the fact it’s not as grim as the Future Rating maybe indicates. They’re going to need Zayne Parekh to reach his absolute ceiling and become one of the top offensive defensemen in the game — like a point-per-game or close dynamo — and to bottom out for a while so they can add more like him.

Matt Coronato’s going to be a good piece. Samuel Honzek might be too. Hunter Brzustewicz showed promise last year. But Parekh and Wolf are their only truly foundational building blocks and they’re going to need a handful like them instead of a pair.

Path to contention

The Flames are in a bit of a pickle with their three current stars.

On the one hand, there is almost zero chance this team turns into a contender with those guys still putting up this kind of value. Only Weegar still projects to to be worthy of future tier inclusion and that’s in a Tier 5 capacity. Those guys can be turned into some tasty Future Rating, too.

On the other hand, true scorched-earth rebuilds are difficult to come back from and can often create a toxic developmental environment for young players.

It’s a Calgary catch-22 where the Flames need to strike a balance between being bad enough to obtain a lot of Future Rating (and cash in on players who won’t help that cause), while also not being so deplorably bad that the team’s culture suffers.

It won’t be an easy road to navigate, and even if they do it perfectly, the Flames will also need to hit on their picks to build up a contending core.

The Flames are at the starting line with a lot of options in front of them. While that offers giddy potential of what may come, there’s also a lot of uncertainty on how it gets done.

Present Stars

Tier 3: MacKenzie Weegar

Tier 5: Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson

Future Stars

Tier 3: Zayne Parekh

Tier 4: Dustin Wolf

Tier 5: MacKenzie Weegar, Matt Coronato

Window Closed

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (65)

Washington Capitals

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (66)

Present Outlook (Rating: 1.6)

The Capitals have four players in this year’s Player Tiers — the problem is they all reside in Tier 5. Elite support is nice… when there’s a star to support, not when those guys are the main attraction.

That’s what puts the Capitals in mid city going into this season where high-end talent is once again the major question mark. Based on their weak ‘Present Rating’ here, fielding a competitive team will likely be a massive uphill battle.

Future Outlook (Rating: 0.3)

Hanging onto their last three first-round picks has signaled the start of a shift away from trying to seriously win with Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson, but Ryan Leonard (who is awesome), Connor McMichael (who took an important step last year but probably settles in as a 20-25 goal, 40-50 point guy), Terik Parascak, Ivan Miroshnichenko and Andrew Cristall (whose impressive NHL preseason has continued to demonstrate he should be viewed as a first-round-level piece even though he was taken in the second round) represent the start of a respectable pool. Just not the high-end one they’ll need to assemble to truly prepare for life after Ovi.

Path to contention

For now, the goal is simply to stay competitive while the team’s greatest ever player aims to become the league’s greatest ever scorer.

Once that quest reaches its conclusion, the real fun begins.

Barring miraculous breakouts, breakthroughs, resurgences, renaissances — whatever you want to call it — the current version of the Capitals looks completely cooked. The window has slammed shut and any current success will likely be modest at best. Combine that with how barren the team’s future looks and there might not be a team in this league further from a Stanley Cup.

No franchise faces a more gruelling path to contention than the Capitals who have a long, uphill battle ahead of them. That only begins in earnest once the franchise admits to itself the current predicament. The current re-tool is a band-aid solution that may get the team to 90 points or more — and hey, if being first-round fodder is the goal, go nuts.

But if a championship is what this club is after, a full teardown is needed to start building a foundation for the next era.

Present Stars

Tier 5: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin, Matt Roy, Dylan Strome

Future Stars

Tier 4: Ryan Leonard

Tier 5: Andrew Cristall

Window Closed

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (67)

Methodology

Similar to this exercise done two years ago, we compared each player’s final placement in the Player Tiers project with his projected value, this time based on Net Rating. That led to the following valuations for each position depending on his tier placement — their “Tier Rating.”

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (68)

Those values were then added up for each team and normalized with percentiles to a scale of 0-to-10 to create their “Present Rating.”

To get each team’s “Future Rating,” we looked at how each player from the Player Tiers is projected to age over the next five seasons and applied that figure to their Tier Rating. We compared that number to the value for each Tier, and put each player in their corresponding future tier.

That process cut off 65 names off this year’s top 150.

With that in mind, we did the same exercise with the Prospect Tiers — assigning a Tier Rating to each one based on where they were placed. To get the 122 prospects to fit into the remaining top 150 — and to account for prospect uncertainty — we applied a sliding probability scale to each tier.

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (69)

That process gave the collection of prospects a combined weight of 65 players and their Tier Ratings were added to the age-adjusted Tier Ratings of the 85 remaining players for each team. That collective value, normalized to percentiles on a scale of 0-to-10, gave us our Future Rating.

Each team’s Present Rating and Future Rating were then plotted together (as seen in the introduction), informing their place in the Contention Cycle.

(Top photos: Patrick McDermott, Sam Hodde / Getty Images)

The NHL Contention Cycle: Where does each team stand now and in the future? (2024)
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